Open Access

Postoperative delirium (POD) and postoperative (neuro-)cognitive disorder (POCD) are frequent and serious complications after operations. We aim to investigate the association between pre-operative polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medications and the development of POD/POCD in elderly patients. This investigation is part of the European BioCog project (www.biocog.eu), a prospective multicenter observational study with elderly surgical patients. Patients with a Mini-Mental State Examination score less than or equal to 23 points were excluded. POD was assessed up to 7 days after surgery using the Nursing Delirium Screening Scale, Confusion Assessment Method (for the intensive care unit [ICU]), and a patient chart review. POCD was assessed 3 months after surgery with a neuropsychological test battery. Pre-operative long-term medication was evaluated in terms of polypharmacy (≥5 agents) and potentially inappropriate medication (defined by the PRISCUS and European list of potentially inappropriate medications [EU(7)-PIM] lists), and associations with POD and POCD were analyzed using logistic regression analysis. Eight hundred thirty-seven participants were included for analysis of POD and 562 participants for POCD. Of these, 165 patients (19.7%) fulfilled the criteria of POD and 60 (10.7%) for POCD. After adjusting for confounders, pre-operative polypharmacy and intake of potentially inappropriate medications could not be shown to be associated with the development of POD nor POCD. We found no associations between pre-operative polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medications and development of POD and POCD. Future studies should focus on the evaluation of drug interactions to determine whether patients benefit from a pre-operative adjustment.

Background A pre-existing neurocognitive disorder (NCD) is a relevant factor for the outcome of surgical patients. To improve understanding of these conditions, we investigated the association between parameters of the cholinergic system and NCD. Method This investigation is part of the BioCog project (www.biocog.eu), which is a prospective multicenter observational study including patients aged 65 years and older scheduled for elective surgery. Patients with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤23 points were excluded. Neurocognitive disorder was assessed according to the fifth Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. The basal forebrain cholinergic system volume (BFCSV) was assessed with magnetic resonance imaging, the peripheral cholinesterase (ChE) activities with point-of-care measurements, and anticholinergic load by analyzing the long-term medication with anticholinergic scales (Anticholinergic Drug Scale [ADS], Anticholinergic Risk Scale [ARS], Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden Scale [ACBS]). The associations of BFCSV, ChE activities, and anticholinergic scales with NCD were studied with logistic regression analysis, adjusting for confounding factors. Results A total of 797 participants (mean age 72 years, 42% females) were included. One hundred and eleven patients (13.9%) fulfilled criteria for mild NCD and 82 patients (10.3%) for major NCD criteria. We found that AcetylChE activity was associated with major NCD (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: [U/gHB] 1.061 [1.010, 1.115]), as well as ADS score ([points] 1.353 [1.063, 1.723]) or ARS score, respectively ([points] 1.623 [1.100, 2.397]) with major NCD. However, we found no association between BFCSV or ButyrylChE activity with mild or major NCD. Conclusions AcetylChE activity and anticholinergic load were associated with major NCD. Future research should focus on the association of the cholinergic system and the development of postoperative delirium and postoperative NCD.

Background: In longitudinal studies, observations are made over time. Hence, the single observations at each time point are dependent, making them a repeated measurement. In this work, we explore a different, counterintuitive setting: At each developmental time point, a lethal observation is performed on the pregnant or nursing mother. Therefore, the single time points are independent. Furthermore, the observation in the offspring at each time point is correlated with each other because each litter consists of several (genetically linked) littermates. In addition, the observed time series is short from a statistical perspective as animal ethics prevent killing more mother mice than absolutely necessary, and murine development is short anyway. We solve these challenges by using multiple contrast tests and visualizing the change point by the use of confidence intervals. Results: We used linear mixed models to model the variability of the mother. The estimates from the linear mixed model are then used in multiple contrast tests.There are a variety of contrasts and intuitively, we would use the Changepoint method. However, it does not deliver satisfying results. Interestingly, we found two other contrasts, both capable of answering different research questions in change point detection: i) Should a single point with change direction be found, or ii) Should the overall progression be determined? The Sequen contrast answers the first, the McDermott the second. Confidence intervals deliver effect estimates for the strength of the potential change point. Therefore, the scientist can define a biologically relevant limit of change depending on the research question. Conclusion: We present a solution with effect estimates for short independent time series with observations nested at a given time point. Multiple contrast tests produce confidence intervals, which allow determining the position of change points or to visualize the expression course over time. We suggest to use McDermott’s method to determine if there is an overall significant change within the time frame, while Sequen is better in determining specific change points. In addition, we offer a short formula for the estimation of the maximal length of the time series.