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Predicting the amputation risk for patients with diabetic foot ulceration : a Bayesian decision support tool

  • Background Diabetes mellitus is a major global health issue with a growing prevalence. In this context, the number of diabetic complications is also on the rise, such as diabetic foot ulcers (DFU), which are closely linked to the risk of lower extremity amputation (LEA). Statistical prediction tools may support clinicians to initiate early tertiary LEA prevention for DFU patients. Thus, we designed Bayesian prediction models, as they produce transparent decision rules, quantify uncertainty intuitively and acknowledge prior available scientific knowledge. Method A logistic regression using observational collected according to the standardised PEDIS classification was utilised to compute the six-month amputation risk of DFU patients for two types of LEA: 1.) any-amputation and 2.) major-amputation. Being able to incorporate information which is available before the analysis, the Bayesian models were fitted following a twofold strategy. First, the designed prediction models waive the available information and, second, we incorporated the a priori available scientific knowledge into our models. Then, we evaluated each model with respect to the effect of the predictors and validity of the models. Next, we compared the performance of both models with respect to the incorporation of prior knowledge. Results This study included 237 patients. The mean age was 65.9 (SD 12.3), and 83.5% were male. Concerning the outcome, 31.6% underwent any- and 12.2% underwent a major-amputation procedure. The risk factors of perfusion, ulcer extent and depth revealed an impact on the outcomes, whereas the infection status and sensation did not. The major-amputation model using prior information outperformed the uninformed counterpart (AUC 0.765 vs AUC 0.790, Cohen’s d 2.21). In contrast, the models predicting any-amputation performed similarly (0.793 vs 0.790, Cohen’s d 0.22). Conclusions Both of the Bayesian amputation risk models showed acceptable prognostic values, and the major-amputation model benefitted from incorporating a priori information from a previous study. Thus, PEDIS serves as a valid foundation for a clinical decision support tool for the prediction of the amputation risk in DFU patients. Furthermore, we demonstrated the use of the available prior scientific information within a Bayesian framework to establish chains of knowledge.

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Metadaten
Author:Jens HüsersORCiD, Ursula Hertha HübnerORCiD
Title (English):Predicting the amputation risk for patients with diabetic foot ulceration : a Bayesian decision support tool
URN:urn:nbn:de:bsz:959-opus-19591
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-020-01195-x
ISSN:1472-6947
Parent Title (English):BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of Completion:2020
Release Date:2021/05/20
Volume:20
Issue:200
Page Number:10
Faculties:Fakultät WiSo
DDC classes:600 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 610 Medizin, Gesundheit
Review Status:Veröffentlichte Fassung/Verlagsversion
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International